After Glenn Youngkin (R) shocked Terry McAuliffe (D) to win Virginia, many people have already started to speculate about the 36 upcoming Governor elections in 2022. Which states are secure? Which states are ready to flip? Which states could be like Virginia and shock us? To find out we must list the levels that we will evaluate the races on, “Safe” indicates a near guaranteed chance of victory, “Likely” indicates that a victory for one side is expected but not guaranteed, “Lean” indicates that the race slightly tilts to one side, and “Tossup” indicates that there is no clear advantage. The authors of this article will both choose an evaluation of the race, providing their opinion on the outcome, while giving a brief rundown on each race. Let’s take a look at the states who will be choosing a new leader in 2022.
Alabama:
Incumbent: Kay Ivey (R)
Alabama is a very red state and don’t expect that to change, especially given Governor Ivey’s high approval ratings.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
Alaska:
Incumbent: Mike Dunleavy (R)
Although he isn’t one of the GOP’s more well-known governors, Dunleavy has a good shot at re-election, mostly because Alaska is a red state, and there simply aren’t any good challengers from the left or right.
CJ’s Projection: Likely R Dylan’s Projection: Likely R
Arizona:
Incumbent: Doug Ducey (R) (term-limited)
Arizona is a very difficult state to predict. While Governor Ducey is reasonably popular, he is term-limited, and the state just went blue in the 2020 election. Overall, it is usually a red state, but can Ducey’s popularity get another Republican elected?
CJ’s Projection: Tossup Dylan’s Projection: Lean R
Arkansas:
Incumbent: Asa Hutchinson (R) (term-limited)
Arkansas is another very strong red state. Although Hutchinson is term-limited, the Republicans are still the dominant party in Arkansas and will very likely be able to retain the state.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
California:
Incumbent: Gavin Newsom (D)
Gavin Newsom is not very popular among many American citizens. Fortunately for Newsom, he has a 57 percent approval rating in his home state of California. The Democrats will once again be able to hold the state with not much serious opposition.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D Dylan’s Projection: Safe D
Colorado:
Incumbent: Jared Polis (D)
Colorado has been able to go from a competitive state to a leaning Democratic state. Colorado polls have shown that most Colorado families would vote for Polis over a Republican candidate. Look for Polis to win re-election.
CJ’s: Projection: Likely D Dylan’s Projection: Safe D
Connecticut:
Incumbent: Ned Lamont (D)
Ned Lamont has had strong support in the state of Connecticut. Polls in the state have shown 70.7 percent of Connecticut residents approve of Lamont’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Expect Lamont to win, as there are currently no other strong candidates looking to challenge.
CJ’s Projection: Likely D Dylan's Projection: Safe D
Florida:
Incumbent: Ron DeSantis (R)
DeSantis has made a very strong name for himself in his home state of Florida and around the United States. Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried will be serious challengers, but given DeSantis’s massive support in the state of Florida, DeSantis will likely win re-election. Don’t be surprised if, in 2024, DeSantis becomes a presidential candidate for the Republican Party.
CJ’s Projection: Likely R Dylan’s Projection: Likely R
Georgia:
Incumbent: Brian Kemp (R)
This is an interesting race to say the least as it’s not really the Democrats that threaten Kemp, but Republicans who want to challenge him. People like Vernon Jones and Sonny Perdue enter to unseat Kemp and the state will probably go red, but will it be Kemp who wins?
CJ’s Projection: Lean R Dylan’s Projection: Lean R
Hawaii:
Incumbent: David Ige (D) (term-limited)
David Ige is not a very popular governor in the state of Hawaii. Ige would likely lose re-election if he were not term-limited. Fortunately for the Hawaii Democratic Party, Hawaii is a very strong blue state and will likely go blue in 2022.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D Dylan’s Projection: Safe D
Idaho: Incumbent: Brad Little (R)
Brad Little has maintained a 59 percent approval rating in his deep-red state of Idaho. Little will likely win re-election with flying colors.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
Illinois
Incumbent: JB Pritzker (D)
Pritzker’s popularity is not very high in his home state. Despite Pritzker’s base not being very enthusiastic with a 43 percent approval rating, Pritzker should still be able to carry the state.
CJ’s Projection: Likely D Dylan’s Projection: Likely D
Iowa:
Incumbent: Kim Reynolds (R)
Reynolds has a 53 percent approval rating in her home state of Iowa. Reynolds also has over fifty percent approval ratings in several areas such as handling of the economy and education. Expect Reynolds to win another re-election.
CJ’s Projection: Likely R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
Kansas:
Incumbent: Laura Kelly (D)
Laura Kelly pulled off an insurmountable upset in the deep red state of Kansas, winning the governorship in the state as a Democrat. Kelly currently holds a 53 percent approval rating and leads Republican Attorney General Dereck Schmidt by three points in a recent poll. Unfortunately for Kelly, Kansas is a very Republican state and re-election will be very difficult.
CJ’s Projection: Lean R (Flip) Dylan’s Projection: Tossup
Maine:
Incumbent: Janet Mills (D)
Mills has had very middling approval ratings and despite Maine being a relatively blue state and despite having the edge of being an incumbent, she will have to go up against former Governor Paul LePage, who is hot on her tail in the polls.
CJ’s Projection: Tossup Dylan’s Projection: Tossup
Maryland:
Incumbent: Larry Hogan (R) (term-limited)
Governor Hogan is extremely popular in Maryland and has the approval ratings to back it up, which is impressive for a Republican in a blue state. Hogan is term-limited, and since nobody else in the Maryland GOP is as popular, the Democrats will probably take the state back.
CJ’s Projection: Lean D (flip) Dylan’s Projection: Lean D (flip)
Massachusetts:
Incumbent: Charlie Baker (R)
Charlie Baker has been one of America's most popular governors in his time as governor of the Bay State. With one year away from re-election, there is no guarantee that Baker comes back for another term. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Geoff Diehl for governor of the Bay State, but regardless, the state will likely have a Republican as its governor.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Likely R
Michigan:
Incumbent: Gretchen Whitmer (D)
Gretchen Whitmer has been very controversial in her home state of Michigan. Whitmer at one point had her emergency powers stripped during the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig will be a serious challenger to Whitmer’s re-election hopes, leading Whitmer in several polls. Expect this to be one of the most competitive and interesting elections of 2022.
CJ’s Projection: Tossup Dylan’s Projection: Tossup
Minnesota:
Incumbent: Tim Walz (D)
Tim Walz is not one of America's most popular governors with a 49 percent approval rating, Walz will not have the easiest path to re-election. Walz did see his approval ratings jump to 65 percent during the COVID-19 pandemic which may just be enough to win re-election.
CJ’s Projection: Likely D Dylan’s Projection: Likely D
Nebraska:
Incumbent: Pete Ricketts (R) (term-limited)
Pete Ricketts has enjoyed a relatively smooth tenure as governor and has the approval ratings to back it up. While he is term-limited, Nebraska is a very red state, and another Republican should get the job.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Likely R
Nevada: Incumbent: Steve Sisolak (D)
Steve Sisolak won the governorship of Nevada in 2018 which was the Democrat's first governorship win in the state since 1994. Sisolak has earned favorable ratings overall at a 52 percent rating and currently leads Republican Dean Heller by two points. This race will be a close one.
CJ’s Projection: Tossup Dylan’s Projection: Lean D
New Hampshire:
Incumbent: Chris Sununu (R)
This is an interesting one. Sununu has remained mum about whether or not he will run for Governor again in 2022. Despite his popularity and high approval numbers, he may challenge Maggie Hassan for her seat in the US Senate. Assuming that he does run for Governor, he will almost certainly win.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
New Mexico:
Incumbent: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)
A recent New Mexico poll looks rather poignant for Michelle Lujan Grisham. Recent findings show that 46 percent of New Mexico residents approve of Grisham's performance compared to a 45 percent disapproval rating. Although Grisham may not be the most popular governor, there are currently no serious challengers to her governorship.
CJ’s Projection: Likely D Dylan’s Projection: Likely D
New York:
Incumbent: Kathy Hochul (D)
Hochul took over the New York Governor’s chair after her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, resigned in disgrace. She has a long list of challengers, state Attorney General Letitia James, NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio, and others. New York will be blue in 2022, but will Hochul be the governor?
CJ’s Projection: Safe D Dylan’s Projection: Safe D
Ohio:
Incumbent: Mike DeWine (R)
Mike DeWine has been one of America's most popular governors, reaching a 75 percent approval rating last year during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately for DeWine, Jim Rennacci is a serious challenger for the Republican nomination, with a poll in May showing Rennacci at 47 percent to DeWine’s 34 percent. The Republicans will likely retain the state, but who will it be?
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Likely R
Oklahoma:
Incumbent: Kevin Stitt (R)
Stitt is a Republican Governor in a very red state and his numbers are looking good early on and after he announced that he will seek re-election, his numbers jumped over his potential Democrat challenger, Joy Hofmeister roughly 49%-33%.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
Oregon: Incumbent: Kate Brown (D) (term-limited)
Kate Brown has been vastly unpopular in the state of Oregon and would likely lose re-election if she were to run again. Fortunately for the Democrats, Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek has a head start on the race, already being endorsed by two state unions and Basic Rights Oregon. Although there is a long way to go, Kotek is currently the favorite to succeed Brown.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D Dylan’s Projection: Safe D
Pennsylvania:
Incumbent: Tom Wolf (D) (term-limited)
After 2 terms as Governor, the relatively popular Tom Wolf is out. There are many on both sides lining up to replace him, such as state Attorney General Josh Shapiro for the Democrats and former US Representative Lou Barletta for the Republicans. At this time, there isn’t a clear advantage for either side.
CJ’s Projection: Tossup Dylan’s Projection: Tossup
Rhode Island: Incumbent: Daniel McKee (D)
McKee was inaugurated as governor of Rhode Island after Gina Raimondo was appointed as US Secretary of Commerce by President Biden. McKee has not yet declared whether or not he will run for re-election. Former Rhode Island Secretary of State Matt Brown will challenge McKee for the Democratic nomination, with the endorsement of Cynthia Mendes on his side. The Democrats still have a strong chance of retaining the state.
CJ’s Projection: Lean D Dylan’s Projection: Likely D
South Carolina:
Incumbent: Henry McMaster (R)
Henry McMaster has had a difficult time as governor in just a few years. From nukegate to a controversial handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been a strange time. Regardless, Former President Donald Trump still endorsed McMaster for the 2022 race and will likely win re-election.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Likely R
South Dakota:
Incumbent: Kristi Noem (R)
Noem is a very controversial Governor across the nation but is on seemingly solid ground in South Dakota. Many believe that she can be beaten, but it’s not looking very likely.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
Tennessee:
Incumbent: Bill Lee (R)
Lee has found high popularity ratings in his home state of Tennessee. Many polls have seen Lee with high approval ratings, earning the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Expect Lee to win re-election.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s: Safe R
Texas:
Incumbent: Greg Abbott (R)
This is one of the most intriguing elections 2022 has to offer. Greg Abbott is one of the most controversial Governors in the US, and while Greg Abbott may be unlikeable, the left’s most likely nominee, Beto O’Rourke, is even more unlikeable, with Abbott leading him in the polls. Famous actor Matthew McConaughey is openly mulling running for Governor as well. Hypothetically, he actually has a better chance to unseat Abbott than O’Rourke does, but he hasn’t made anything official yet. Now we wait...
CJ’s Projection: Likely R Dylan’s Projection: Likely R
Vermont: Incumbent: Phil Scott (R)
Phil Scott has been a surprisingly popular Republican governor in the deep blue state of Vermont. Scott has had high approval ratings in the state and has handled the COVID-19 pandemic better than any other state in the US. Expect Scott to win re-election without a serious challenge to his seat.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
Wisconsin:
Incumbent: Tony Evers (D)
Evers was originally a safe bet in Wisconsin, but former GOP Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch has tied him in many polls. At this point in time, it’s anyone’s guess who’s race this is. Evers may have the advantage of being the incumbent, but will it matter?
CJ’s Projection: Tossup Dylan’s Projection: Lean D
Wyoming:
Incumbent: Mark Gordon (R)
Mark Gordon is one of the most popular Governors in terms of approval ratings and he often led the country in gubernatorial approval ratings, usually in the high 60’s to low 70’s and he won his last election with over 67% of the popular vote. With that in mind, there would need to be a monumental polling miss for him not to be reelected.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R Dylan’s Projection: Safe R
Obviously, we are about a year away from knowing the results, but these are the projections in the meantime. Who knows how things will shake out in a year? Until then, we can only anticipate what can happen, but there will almost definitely be some upsets and we will just have to wait to see what transpires.
Have an opposing viewpoint to this opinion? Let us know. All views are welcomed. Send your thoughts to our Editorial Staff – Editor Katherine Montgomery kmontgomery2@student.dean.edu or Dean Daily Faculty Advisor, Professor John Rooke jrooke@dean.edu
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