On November 8th, the United States will hold its midterm elections. While many focus on the Senate and House of Representatives, Gubernatorial elections often go unnoticed. There are thirty-six elections where states will elect new or incumbent governors, and unlike the congressional races, seats are more likely to flip without warning, and this election cycle is no different. There are eight states whose governor seats could realistically flip this November, and this is a breakdown of all eight.
Arizona
Arizona offers what looks to be a very close race between Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and a former television anchor and Trump-endorsed Republican, Kari Lake. Hobbs began with a noticeable advantage, but Lake has since closed the gap, tying and even leading Hobbs in many polls. For most of the race, every major pollster has rated the race as a tossup. During the race, Hobbs attacked Lake by calling her a “conspiracy theorist”, while Lake berated Hobbs over her refusal to participate in a debate before the election. With incumbent Republican Doug Ducey approaching term limits, this race will go down to the wire.
Kansas
Kansas might have the closest gubernatorial race in the midterm elections, as the incumbent Democrat of the staunchly red state. Incumbent Laura Kelly is locked in a fierce race with Republican state Attorney General Derek Schmidt. Both candidates are well respected and qualified, and the polls reflect that as they go back and forth between the two candidates. Many consider this race the purest form of a tossup, as either candidate can conceivably win, and neither has a definite advantage.
Maine
The Gubernatorial race in Maine happens to be an unexpected tossup, as current Democrat incumbent, Janet Mills, is facing former Republican Governor Paul LePage. Maine’s election laws state that a person can serve two consecutive four-year terms but can run again after four years have passed after their second term. The race is considered a lean D, but LePage should not be counted out, especially after receiving endorsements from Maine Senator Susan Collins.
Maryland
Despite being a staunchly blue state, Maryland has a very popular incumbent Republican Governor, Larry Hogan. However, Hogan is term-limited, and it appears the governorship will flip back to blue. The Democrats have put up an author and nonprofit CEO Wes Moore, whereas the Republicans have nominated State Delegate Dan Cox. While Cox does have Donald Trump’s backing, he does not have Hogan’s backing. Meanwhile, Moore has the endorsement of President Joe Biden and senators Chris Van Hollen and Ben Cardin.
Massachusetts
Much like Maryland, the blue state of Massachusetts has a retiring Republican Governor in Charlie Baker. Running to succeed him are state Attorney General Maura Healey and former state Representative Geoff Diehl. This race is very likely to flip back to blue, as Healey has a broader base of support, while Diehl is viewed as much more conservative than the moderate Baker.
Nevada
After being elected with only about 49% of the vote in 2018, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak is in another close race. His opponent is Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, who carries the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Sisolak and Lombardo have gone back and forth in the polls, as neither seems to hold a clear lead over the other. They have repeatedly clashed over immigration, spending, and crime, often taking the opposite view of each other. Sisolak is not a safe bet, despite being the incumbent, and a Lombardo victory is not out of the question.
Oregon
Change may be coming in the deep blue state of Oregon, with the unpopular incumbent Democrat Kate Brown facing term limits as the Republicans look to pounce on a seat that may be in jeopardy. As it sits now, it is a three-way race between Democrat majority Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek, Republican State Representative Christine Drazan, and a surprise third-party candidate, independent Betsy Johnson. This race is widely rated as a tossup as Christine Drazan continues to hold a slight advantage in polling. Winning in Oregon be huge for the Republicans if they flip a governor's seat in a Democratic stronghold like Oregon.
Wisconsin
After narrowly defeating two-term incumbent Scott Walker, Democrat Tony Evers has another tough race ahead of him, now running against Tim Michels, the co-owner of the Michels Corporation. Evers has a razor-thin advantage over Michels in the polls, but Michels has led in some polls himself, putting this race into the tossup category. Like Wisconsin’s 2018 race, this looks to be another close one that will go down to the wire.