The 2020 US Presidential Election saw Joe Biden take on Donald Trump in a climate defined by COVID-19, economics, and tense social polarization. Trump ran on a platform of law and order and an overall strong economy during his presidency but was ultimately denied a second term in office as Biden was elected as the forty-sixth President of the United States. After losing the election, Trump has repeatedly claimed that there was massive voter fraud, but there is currently no material evidence of this claim.
Trump left the White House and was again impeached, with many political rivals and even some Republicans voting to indict him for his role in the January 6th attacks. The transition to Biden’s Presidency was chaotic, but ultimately, Biden was sworn into office on January 20th, 2021, with promises of building back better, but a return to normalcy after a controversial four years under Trump quickly diminished. Biden’s presidency has been highlighted by a national crime surge, increased inflation, and chaos at the American-Mexican border, but not all has been bad, as vaccines for the COVID-19 pandemic have been administered.
However, despite Biden’s struggles as President, the Democrats did surprisingly well in the 2022 midterms. The Democrats minimized their losses in the House, earned a full majority in the Senate, and had a net gain of two governorships. Many in the Republican Party, including former Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, blame Trump and the supposed weak candidates he endorsed for the failed “red wave”, and have called for the party to move in a different direction.
However, despite the losses of Trump-endorsed candidates in November, Trump remains popular going into the Republican primaries easily coming in first in every poll over strong challengers like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis was starting to close the gap between him and Trump, but in March, Trump was indicted by a Manhattan Grand Jury for alleged hush money payments to adult movie actress Stormy Daniels. While many would think this bodes well for DeSantis, Trump’s poll numbers have shot up, and outside the Republican party, independent and even liberal voters have questioned the indictment, although most Americans do support it.
With Trump continuing to make ground, it seems more likely by the day that he will win the Republican nomination for the third straight time, but there is still a long way to go. Ron DeSantis has not announced a presidential bid yet, and he will surely be more popular with establishment Republicans and unaffiliated voters in states that allow unaffiliated voters to vote in the primaries. However, Trump has proven able to rattle even the most experienced politicians before and could do so again, but how likely is a rematch with President Biden?
Although he is the incumbent President, Joe Biden will face some Democratic challengers going into 2024. Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the nephew of John. F. Kennedy announced their intentions to run for the Democratic nomination believing they would be the best choice to run the nation and defeat the Republican challenger. On paper, the chances of President Biden winning re-election appear slim based on his handling of current affairs and his low approval rating, but not all hope is lost for the President despite the tough road ahead.
President Biden is not popular with a lot of Democrats, but he has the advantage of being the incumbent and is arguably more electable for Democrats compared to his current challengers. Even if the DNC opted for a different candidate, it would likely be Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom are allies of the President and are unlikely to challenge him. Although he is unpopular with many Americans, President Biden could still appeal to many anti-Trump voters, and maximize Democratic voter turnout to prevent a non-consecutive term for Donald Trump.
The Democrats managed to prevent a red wave from happening and won close races in Republican-leaning states. Much of this can be credited to the Democrats' ability to turn out their voters by appealing to liberal voters after the overturning of Roe v Wade and the Republican's inability to turn out their voters. An example of this was in the Pennsylvania senate race between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman, in which Oz failed to get Trump’s support in Western PA despite having the former President’s endorsement, resulting in the seat flipping to the Democrats.
Dr. Oz was the only real viable candidate for the Pennsylvania Republican Party, as many of his challengers were not strong on the issues or had serious fundraising issues. This seat was winnable for the Republicans as their challenger and eventual winner, John Fetterman, performed poorly in his debate against Oz and had concerning health issues, which have continued after getting elected. This race has made people believe that the American people are rejecting Trump, but this may not necessarily be the case.
While there are plenty of anti-Trump voters in states across the country, the losses of Trump-endorsed candidates went beyond Donald Trump. The RNC did not wisely invest resources in winnable races and failed to embrace mail-in ballot voting, which Democrats have used to attract record high turnout in 2020. There was anti-Trump bias present in the midterms, but many of these candidates were not strong to begin with and likely would have lost their elections regardless of if Trump endorsed them or not.
Donald Trump endorsed conservative commentator Tudor Dixon to challenge Gretchen Whitmer in the Michigan gubernatorial race. However, Dixon was all but handed the nomination after five Republicans were disqualified from running, so she had no other viable challengers. It was a bad night for Michigan Republicans, as they lost their power in the legislature to give the Democrats a trifecta in state government for the first time in nearly forty years.
Donald Trump has famously been blamed for Kari Lake's loss in the Arizona gubernatorial race when there was more to the story than that. Like in other races across the nation, Lake had fundraising issues despite her strong stances and overall candidacy, but a lack of support from fellow Republicans and a divide in the Arizona G.O.P. after the primary resulted in her controversial loss to Katie Hobbs. However, Lake's political career is not over yet, as she has expressed interest in running for the Arizona senate seat in 2024 in a three-way race against incumbent independent Krysten Sinema and Democrat Ruben Gallego (AZ-03).
The midterms were disastrous for Republicans, but Trump-endorsed candidates did hold onto critical seats in the Senate. Ted Budd and JD Vance both won close races in North Carolina and Ohio, with Budd winning by a bigger margin than Trump did in 2020, although there was less voter turnout. Even in losses, Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee for the New York gubernatorial election, lost by less than six points to Kathy Hochul despite New York's blue-state status.
Zeldin performed well in New York because he campaigned on state issues and did not talk about Donald Trump every second that he could. Ultimately, the American people have proven they will vote for the candidate who will represent them the best because many voters don't care about someone's ties to Donald Trump. Voters will support the candidate who stands the best chance at solving the problems that affect them the most.
Many Republicans will see Trump-endorsed candidates losing as a sign to move in a different direction, but the losses of these candidates often come down to fundraising, ineffective campaigning across the board, and a divide in the Republican Party. These Trump-endorsed candidates would have likely lost their races and had Trump not endorsed them, many of them would have been lucky to have won the primary. Donald Trump, on the other hand, while not without his issues, was a very strong campaigner, and his policies saw the Republicans win states they hadn't won in nearly thirty years.
There is still a long way to go until 2024, and a lot can happen until then. Ron DeSantis is popular with many Republicans, but at the end of the day, Trump has the wealth and independence from donors that will appeal to more Republican voters than it won't. A rematch between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden is very likely to happen, despite what many Democrats and Republicans want to believe.
Have an opposing viewpoint to this opinion? Let us know. All views are welcome. Send your thoughts to our Editorial Staff – Editor Dylan Hicks dhicks@student.dean.edu or Dean Daily Faculty Advisor, Professor John Rooke jrooke@dean.edu
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