In less than a week, the midterm elections will officially take place, dictating the control of Congress. While the House of Representatives is widely projected to go in favor of the Republicans, the Senate race is less clear and could flip either way. With the midterms being so close, we can officially rate each race that the senate has in this cycle, this is the projection of every 2022 Senate race.
The way this works is that each senate race and its prominent candidates will be listed with their party and a prediction. The rating system will have ranks of “Safe”, “Likely”, ''Lean”, and “Tossup”. Races that have more national prominence will have an explanation.
(* denotes an incumbent)
Alabama:
Katie Britt: R
Will Boyd: D
Projection: Safe R
Alaska:
Lisa Murkowski: R*
Kelly Tshibaka: R
Patricia Chesbro: D
Buzz Kelley: R
Projection: Safe R
Lisa Murkowski’s most likely challenger is the Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka. A Republican will win, but which one?
Arizona:
Mark Kelly D*
Blake Masters R
Projection: Tossup
Mark Kelly’s lead has evaporated, and he is in danger after Libertarian Marc Victor dropped out and endorsed Masters. The race is too close to call and can go either way.
Arkansas:
John Boozman: R*
Natalie James: D
Projection: Safe R
California:
Alex Padilla: D*
Mark Meuser: R
Projection: Safe D
Colorado:
Michael Bennet: D*
Joe O’Dea: R
Projection: Likely D
While still projected to win, the incumbent Senator Bennet faces an unexpected challenge from little-known Republican Joe O’Dea.
Connecticut:
Richard Blumenthal: D*
Leora Levy: R
Projection: Safe D
Florida:
Marco Rubio: R*
Val Demings: D
Projection: Likely R
While Val Demings may be formidable on the campaign trail, Rubio is a senator with national notoriety and a solid bet for reelection.
Georgia:
Raphael Warnock: D*
Herschel Walker: R
Projection: Tossup
Warnock and Walker are in a dead heat for an important seat that could dictate control over the senate. Warnock looked to be pulling away, but after a strong debate performance, Walker stormed back and could upset the incumbent.
Hawaii:
Brian Schatz: D*
Bob McDermott: R
Projection: Safe D
Idaho:
Mike Crapo: R*
David Roth: D
Projection: Safe R
Illinois:
Tammy Duckworth: D*
Kathy Salvi: R
Projection: Safe D
Indiana:
Todd Young: R*
Thomas McDermott: D
Projection: Safe R
Iowa:
Chuck Grassley: R*
Michael Franken: D
Projection: Safe R
Kansas:
Jerry Moran: R*
Mark Holland: D*
Projection: Safe R
Kentucky:
Rand Paul: R*
Charles Booker: D
Projection: Safe R
Louisiana:
John Kennedy: R*
Gary Chambers: D
Luke Mixon: D
Projection: Safe R
Maryland:
Chris Van Hollen: D*
Chris Chaffee: R
Projection: Safe D
Missouri:
Eric Schmitt: R
Trudy Busch Valentine: D
Projection: Safe R
While this seat may be open, Missouri state Attorney General Eric Schmitt is likely to defeat Busch fortune heiress Trudy Busch Valentine.
Nevada:
Catherine Cortez Masto: D*
Adam Laxalt: R
Projection: Tossup
Catherine Cortez Masto is in a tough fight for reelection, especially since Laxalt has overtaken her in the polls. Nevada is always an interesting swing state to watch, but can Laxalt flip this seat?
New Hampshire:
Maggie Hassan: D*
Don Bolduc: R
Projection: Tossup
Incumbent Maggie Hassan’s lead is disappearing as Bolduc is surging in the polls, thus moving this race to tossup territory.
New York:
Chuck Schumer: D*
Joe Pinion: R
Projection: Safe D
North Carolina:
Ted Budd: R
Cheri Beasley: D
Projection: Lean R
Budd and Beasley are in a close race to the finish and both can win, but Budd does hold the advantage.
North Dakota:
John Hoeven: R*
Katrina Christiansen: D
Projection: Safe R
Ohio:
J.D. Vance: R
Tim Ryan: D
Projection: Lean R
Longtime representative Tim Ryan is eyeing the seat vacated by incumbent Rob Portman, but the state’s partisan lean and the growing gap between him and his opponent make the race lean towards Vance.
Oklahoma:
James Lankford: R*
Madison Horn: D
Projection: Safe R
Oklahoma (special election):
Markwayne Mullin: R
Kendra Horn: D
Projection: Safe R
Incumbent Jim Inhofe is retiring early, therefore Mullin and Horn are running to replace him, with Mullin being heavily favored.
Oregon:
Ron Wyden: D*
Jo Rae Perkins: R
Projection: Safe D
Pennsylvania:
John Fetterman: D
Mehmet Oz: R
Projection: Tossup
In arguably the biggest senate race this cycle, Pennsylvania Lt. Governor Joh Fetterman will face off against TV personality and former heart surgeon Mehmet Oz. Both are vying for Pat Toomey’s open seat, who is stepping down from his position. Fetterman started strong, but Oz rallied back and took the lead after Fetterman’s poor debate performance.
South Carolina:
Tim Scott: R*
Krystle Matthews: D
Projection: Safe R
South Dakota:
John Thune: R*
Brian Bengs: D
Projection: Safe R
Utah:
Mike Lee: R*
Evan McMullin: I
Projection: Likely R
This is an intriguing race because no Democrat is running, but the conservative-leaning independent Evan McMullin is. Lee is favored to win reelection, but McMullin is holding his own.
Vermont:
Peter Welch: D
Gerald Malloy: R
Projection: Safe D
Washington:
Patty Murray: D*
Tiffany Smiley: R
Projection: Likely D
Wisconsin:
Ron Johnson: R*
Mandela Barnes: D
Projection: Lean R
Ron Johnson faces a real threat from Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes. Johnson, however, maintains the edge in the polls as the midterms draw near.
Have an opposing viewpoint to this opinion? Let us know. All views are welcomed. Send your thoughts to our Editorial Staff – Editor Dylan Hicksdhicks@student.edu or Dean Daily Faculty Advisor, Professor John Rooke jrooke@dean.edu
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