The 2024 election cycle will be well known for the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as several notable House and Senate races as well. However, many of the Gubernatorial elections often fly under the radar. While it’s not quite as high profile as midterm Gubernatorial elections, there are still eleven states that will have a battle for the Governor’s chair while Presidential campaigns rage in 2024. Here we will give a brief rundown of each election and a prediction.
Delaware: (Incumbent: John Carney D)
Delaware nationally and on the state level has been a reliably blue state for many years, so this being an open seat election due to incumbent Democrat John Carney being term-limited won’t make too much of a difference. The Democrats have two challengers for the nomination New Castle County Execute Matt Meyer and incumbent Lieutenant Governor Bethany Hall-Long, with Meyer being considered more progressive and Hall-Long considered closer to being a moderate, especially economically. The Republican’s most notable candidate is retired police officer Jerry Price and as it sits now, whoever wins the Democratic nomination should win the Governorship.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe D (Hold)
Indiana: (Incumbent: Eric Holcomb R)
Much like the aforementioned Delaware, Indiana also has a term-limited Governor in Republican Eric Holcomb. The Republican primary is looking to be lined with big names and extremely well-funded, with current Senator Mike Braun in the lead. Also in the primary are incumbent Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch, former Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers, former President of the Indiana Economic Development Corporation Eric Doden, and former Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill. The Democrats, on the other hand, seem to have rallied around former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction, Jennifer McCormick, who is also a former Republican. On top of that, Libertarian Donald Rainwater announced his candidacy as well, after getting over 11% of the vote in the 2020 Indiana Gubernatorial election. Indiana is a deeply red state, and it seems that whoever makes it out of the crowded GOP primary (likely Braun) will likely be elected Governor.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Missouri: (Incumbent Mike Parson R)
Governor Mike Parson is term-limited, leaving a wide-open Republican primary. Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (who is also the son of former Governor John Ashcroft) currently leads Republican polling by wide margins over the state's Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe. On the Democratic side, Minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives Crystal Quade leads Democratic polling. Quade has been endorsed by former Governor Bob Holden and former Secretary of State Jason Kander. Although both candidates have strong name recognition in the state, Missouri is unlikely to flip.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Montana: (Incumbent Greg Gianforte R)
On the state level, Montana isn’t as Republican as it’s known nationally, seeing as Democrat Steve Bullock served eight years as governor from 2012 to 2020. However, incumbent Republican Greg Gianforte will prove difficult to remove from office, as he doesn’t have any notable challengers, only former Vice President of Sales at Kimber Manufacturing Ryan Busse, and attorney Jim Hunt. With Montana’s favorable view of Gianforte and the lack of true high-profile challengers, this seat isn’t likely to flip.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
New Hampshire: (Incumbent Chris Sununu R)
New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race will be one of the most competitive races in the country. Incumbent Chris Sununu has announced he will not seek reelection, who otherwise would have been considered a safe bet to win another term. On the Republican side, former Senator Kelly Ayotte and President of the New Hampshire Senate Chuck Morse are the two front runners. Ayotte currently leads in primary polling.
Former mayor of Manchester Joyce Craig and New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington headline the Democratic primaries. Craig has a polling advantage and has endorsements from former Governor John Lynch and Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey. New Hampshire will be a competitive race, given its “purple” status and Libertarian streak. However, Ayotte’s name recognition and current polling against Craig and Warmington indicate she is on the path to the governorship.
CJ’s Prediction: Lean R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Likely R (Hold)
North Carolina: (Incumbent: Roy Cooper D)
Like in New Hampshire, North Carolina’s gubernatorial race may be one of the most hotly contested races in the country. Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson will face off against Attorney General Josh Stein. The Tar Heel state tends to split its ticket, going Republican at the Presidential level while simultaneously electing a Democratic governor, but this year might break the trend.
The Republican Robinson has made several controversial statements unapologetically in the past that may hurt him against Stein. Stein is a well-known public official, but Robinson, despite his controversial statements, is an excellent speaker with a competent state party behind him. This will be a close race, but Robinson's name recognition and support from state and national figures might put him over the top.
CJ’s Prediction: Lean R (Flip)
Dylan’s Prediction: Lean R (Flip)
North Dakota: (Incumbent: Doug Burgum R)
Incumbent Governor and 2024 Presidential Candidate Doug Burgum will not seek another term as Governor of North Dakota. This development means Republican primaries will be more competitive. Kelly Armstrong, a Representative from North Dakotas at large U.S. Congressional District, and Tammy Miller, the state Lieutenant Governor headline the Republican field. Armstrong has the endorsement of both states' U.S. Senators and the state party, but Miller has been endorsed by Burgum. On the Democratic side, State Senator Merrill Piepkorn is the presumptive nominee and has the endorsement of the state party. Although North Dakota has seen competitive races in the past, whoever the Republican nominee is will cruise to victory.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Utah: (Incumbent: Spencer Cox R)
Spencer Cox will attempt to seek a second term after having won by more than 30 points in 2020. However, Cox faces several challengers in the Republican primaries, which includes former Chair of the Utah Republican Party, Carson Jorgensen. Cox himself is considered a moderate, particularly on LGBT and environmental issues. Although he faces some Republican opposition, he leads by wide margins in polling and is more than likely to be renominated. On the Democratic side, former Minority Leader of the Utah House of Representatives Brian King is the presumptive nominee. King has some name recognition, but not enough to overcome Cox in the general.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Vermont: (Incumbent: Phil Scott R)
Despite being one of the most Democratic states in the US, Vermont has an incumbent Republican Governor in the extremely popular Phil Scott. Scott has yet to announce that he is running for another term, but should he want one, he will win easily. The main Democrat looking to challenge him is Esther Charlestin, the Co-Chair of the Vermont Commission on Women. Regardless of the state’s leaning, Scott is a safe bet for reelection and this projection is assuming that he does run.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Washington: (Jay Inslee D)
Washington is having its first open-seat election since 2012 and incumbent Democrat Jay Inslee who doesn’t have term limits is announcing that he won’t seek a fourth term. The state operates on a top-two primary meaning that all parties run together in one massive primary and the top two candidates will face each other on election day. The top Democrat candidate is Bob Ferguson, the incumbent Attorney General, and the top Republican candidate is former Congressman Dave Reichert. While Ferguson should be the victor early polling is showing an uncomfortably close race for him, with Reichert right behind him, we’ll see if it holds as we get closer to November.
CJ’s Prediction: Likely D (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe D (Hold)
West Virginia: (Incumbent: Jim Justice R)
West Virginia’s gubernatorial election will mark the end of the Jim Justice governorship, who is running for the coinciding Senate race. This race features some exciting primaries on the Republican primaries. Moore Capito, son of U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito, and Patrick Morrissey are two leading candidates in Republican polling, with Morrissey holding an advantage. On the Democratic side, the former Mayor of Huntington Steve Williams is the presumptive nominee. However, this race is unlikely to be very competitive, especially due to the name recognition of Republicans, and West Virginia's deeply conservative roots.
CJ’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Prediction: Safe R (Hold)
Have an opposing viewpoint to this opinion? Let us know. All views are welcome. Send your thoughts to our Editorial Staff – Editor Dylan Hicks dhicks@student.dean.edu or Dean Daily Faculty Advisor, Professor John Rooke jrooke@dean.edu