In less than nine months, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election will commence, as will coinciding congressional, gubernatorial, and senate elections. Incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden hopes that he can not only defend the White House but that his presence on the ballot will carry other Democrats to victory. The Senate elections may be the most impactful outside of the presidency, with several crucial elections set to take place.
The Republicans appear to have a very favorable map in a relatively favorable year. President Biden is unpopular, and several Democrats are defending seats in “red states” in a year where Republican voter turnout is likely to be maximized. However, the Democrats cannot be counted out to hold or even expand their slim majority, with several key races that could potentially change the direction of the nation.
Although there is still a year out from the senate elections, several candidates are starting to shape up their campaigns to flip or defend their seats. This is a list of projections just one year out with a key on how close or not a race will be.
Safe: 10%
Likely: 5-9.99%
Lean: 2-4.99%
Tilt-0-1.9%
Arizona: (Incumbent: Krysten Sinema-I)
After shocking the world by flipping one of Arizona’s senate seats blue in 2018, Kyrsten Sinema is back, but this time as an independent candidate after bucking many Democrat policies. The Democrats are looking to fill this seat with someone who toes the line more and US Representative Ruben Gallego is a shoo-in for the nomination. The Republicans have for gubernatorial candidate from 2022 Kari Lake running, she also does not have much opposition from her party.
What makes this race especially intriguing is that Sinema can eat away at independent voters who might otherwise go to Gallego or Lake and Sinema is not projected to win, but her presence will have to be carefully navigated around by her challengers, both of whom have taken a more moderate shift recently. Turnout is always higher in a presidential year, so this race could go either way.
CJ’s Projection: Tilt R (Flip)
Dylan’s Projection: Lean D (Flip)
California: (Incumbent: LaPhonza Butler-D)
After the death of longtime Senator Dianne Feinstein, Laphonza Butler was appointed as interim Senator, however, she has announced that she will not seek a full term, leaving the seat open. In a heavily Democratic state, there are many Democrats who are trying to claim that seat, the most notable being US Representatives Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee. The Republican’s most notable candidate is former MLB star Steve Garvey, who is not expected to win the seat in one of the country’s most reliably blue states.
California’s primary system will combine every party into one large primary and the top two regardless of vote percentage will advance to the general, so there very well could be two Democrats running in the general election, which happened the last time Feinstein was reelected back in 2018.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Connecticut: (Incumbent: Chris Murphy-D)
Democrat Chris Murphy announced that he will officially seek a third term to represent Connecticut in the Senate. He has amassed $10 million thus far and shouldn’t really have any problems being reelected, especially since his Republican challengers are lobbyist Robert Hyde and investment executive John Flynn.
With weak candidates and this being an election year, Murphy should be a lock to win reelection barring something insane happening.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Delaware: (Incumbent: Tom Carper-D)
Incumbent Democrat Tom Carper will not seek a fifth term in the Senate and will finally retire after what will be 24 years. The Democrats have seemingly united around Representative from Delaware’s at-large congressional district Lisa Blunt Rochester, who already has over $4 million raised. The Republican’s most notable candidate in Delaware is business manager Eric Hansen.
This is not expected to be a competitive race, with Blunt-Rochester already having a massive advantage in fundraising and name recognition, she should win this seat with little difficulty.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Florida: (Incumbent: Rick Scott-R)
Just six years ago, then-Florida Governor Rick Scott barely unseated the incumbent Bill Nelson by just over 10,000 votes. This and the coinciding gubernatorial election showed just how close Florida elections could be, and how competitive the Sunshine State was. Things have changed since then, and Florida has moved from a Republican-leaning state to a safe one.
Scott has the money, the name recognition, and support from national Republicans like Donald Trump that should get him reelected. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Alan Grayson are the two most notable candidates to have either declared or have filed paperwork for the Democratic primary. However, neither have the resources or a competent statewide party behind them like Scott does.
CJ’s Projection: Likely R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Likely R (Hold)
Hawaii: (Incumbent: Mazie Hirono-D)
Mazie Hirono has been serving since 2013 and is likely to win reelection in a landslide. Hirono does not have any primary challengers at this point and has the support of organizations like EMILY’s List and J Street PAC.
Harry Friel Jr. and Adriel Lam are the only two Republicans to declare their intention to run for the seat. Hawaii is just too Democratic and while the state could see its Presidential margins narrow slightly in 2024, the Senate race is all but a lock.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Indiana: (Incumbent: Mike Braun-R)
Incumbent Senator Mike Braun is retiring after one term and will instead run for Indiana’s coinciding Gubernatorial race. Three candidates are running to be the Republican nominee, the most notable being Jim Banks, the U.S. Representative for Indiana’s third U.S. Congressional District. Banks has been endorsed by several high-profile names, including former President Donald Trump.
The Democrats on the other hand are unlikely to be competitive in this race. Three Democrats have declared their intentions to run, the most notable being former state representative Marc Carmichael. Whoever the Republican nominee is should come away victorious by double digits.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Maine: (Incumbent: Angus King-I)
Angus King has served as an independent voice in the U.S. Senate since 2013 but caucuses with the Democrats. King has a high approval rating in Maine, has worked on bipartisan issues, and has been a key endorsement for Democrats and Republicans. King took down both parties by double digits in 2012 and 2018 and is likely to do the same in 2024.
So far, the Republicans and Democrats only have one candidate running each. David Costello, a former deputy secretary of the Maryland Department has declared his intentions to run as a Democrat. Demitroula Kouzounas, former Chair of the Maine Republican Party has declared his intentions to run but either way, King is a safe bet to win again.
CJ’s Projection: Safe I (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe I (Hold)
Maryland: (Incumbent: Ben Cardin-D)
Longtime politician Ben Cardin will not be seeking reelection to a fourth term in the Senate so as a result, many Democrats are lining up to challenge each other for his seat. Only two stand out, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and US Representative David Trone, with the polling being tight but showing Trone with a slim lead. The Republicans have political activist Robin Ficker retired Air Force Brigadier General John Teichert and most notably, the extremely popular former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.
Whether Alsobrooks or Trone prevails as the Democrat nominee, it is extremely unlikely that they would lose in a presidential election year with ticket splitting becoming increasingly rare. Hogan’s presence complicates things for the Democrats and he’s no stranger to pulling off upsets in Maryland, but this will be his biggest challenge yet.
CJ’s Projection: Likely D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Massachusetts: (Incumbent: Elizabeth Warren-D)
Elizabeth Warren was first elected in a fairly tight race against incumbent Republican Scott Brown in 2012. Since then, however, Warren has become a household name in the Bay State and cruised to another term in 2018. Robert Antonellis is the only Republican candidate to declare his intentions to run for the Senate. However, his lack of name recognition will not do him any favors, and Warren is all but assured another six years as a Senator.
Interestingly enough, there was a chance that Warren would face stiff Republican opposition. In a head-to-head poll from MassFiscal, Warren was trailing former Republican Governor Charlie Baker by double digits. However, Baker is unlikely to run, and Warren should cruise to victory against her opponent.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Michigan: (Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow-D)
Longtime Senator Debbie Stabenow has decided against seeking a fifth term, but the Democrats seem to be rallying around US Representative Elissa Slotkin who leads her main primary challenger, actor Hill Harper, by a wide margin. The Republicans have a divided primary, as former Representatives Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer and former Detroit PD Chief James Craig all vie for the nomination, with Craig leading in polling as of now.
While Michigan has been reliably blue for the Senate, their 2020 election was too close for comfort and an open seat could hurt the Democrats especially if the state goes red for the presidential election and with the increased rarity of ticket-splitting, a GOP victory here isn’t out of the question, but the Democrats will be slightly favored.
CJ’s Projection: Tilt D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Lean D (Hold)
Minnesota: (Incumbent: Amy Klobuchar-D)
Amy Klobuchar has served in the U.S. Senate since 2007 and has won every election by more than twenty points. Klobuchar’s victory is all but a lock and will likely outperform Biden in the state. Things get easier as none of her opponents have her name recognition, approval ratings, or fundraising.
Joyce Lacey and former NBA player Royce White are the two most notable candidates for the Republicans. Lacey and White ran for governor and Minnesota’s fifth U.S. Congressional District in 2022 respectively, but neither were the nominees for their races. Klobuchar is going to win big again, and her presence may actually help President Biden hold the state.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Mississippi: (Incumbent: Roger Wicker-R)
Roger Wicker is looking to be reelected to a third full term after being elected via a special election in 2008. Wicker is basically a lock for reelection in a deep red Mississippi and doesn’t face any real challenge.
He will likely face Democrat Ty Pinkins in the general election, who doesn’t have the best name recognition and not much in the way of funding. Look for Wicker to sail to victory in a state that will also go red in the presidential election.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Missouri: (Incumbent: Josh Hawley-R)
The incumbent Republican Josh Hawley is looking to grab a second term as a Senator from the Show Me State after defeating incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill back in 2018. Hawley is widely considered a rising star in the GOP and should be a safe bet for reelection in a reliably red state like Missouri.
Hawley’s most notable Democrat challenger is Lucas Kunce a Marine Corps Veteran and unsuccessful candidate for Senate back in 2022. Kunce has some name recognition and good fundraising ability, but lags behind Hawley’s fundraising numbers, trailing $18 million to $5 million. As mentioned before, this is a Presidential year and Hawley could very well receive a boost because of Trump atop the ticket,
CJ’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Montana: (Incumbent: Jon Tester-D)
Montana is a safe bet to vote Republican in the Presidential race, but its coinciding Senate race will be a tight one. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester has been viewed as a centrist Democrat and has often crossed party lines. However, the moderate label seems to be wearing off, as he has voted with Biden more than 90% of the time.
On the Republican side, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and Matt Rosendale of Montana’s Second Congressional District are top names for the nomination. Either way, the Republicans have the potential to flip this seat. With anti-Biden sentiment and heightened partisanship, there are likely to be enough straight Republican tickets to unseat Tester.
CJ’s Projection: Lean R (Flip)
Dylan’s Projection: Tilt R (Flip)
Nebraska: (Incumbent: Deb Fischer-R)
Nebraska’s Class I Senate seat looks to be safe for Deb Fischer to win reelection. Fischer has powerful endorsements and should win by a safe margin especially since there doesn’t appear to be any strong Democratic opposition. However, independent candidate Dan Osborn is an interesting challenge.
Osborn is a Union Leader and a Veteran who takes moderate to even Libertarian policies on taxes, and cannabis, and supports term limits. Interestingly enough, Osborn has even topped Fischer in a poll, and Democrats have even considered backing him. However, Fischer is a safe bet to win another term.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Nebraska (Special Election): (Incumbent: Pete Ricketts-R)
Former Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts was appointed to the seat vacated by Republican Ben Sasse to become the President of the University of Florida. Ricketts holds high name value and massive fundraising numbers as he looks to be elected to his first full term.
Ricketts faces minimal opposition from his party and minimal opposition from the Democrats as well since Nebraska is a deep red state. As of now, it looks like Pete Ricketts will hold on to his seat.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Nevada: (Incumbent: Jackie Rosen-D)
Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term in the Senate and on the surface, she should be fine. She is an incumbent, she has raised over $19 million, and her fellow Senator Catherine Cortez Masto was reelected in 2022. However, this is a presidential election year and Nevada is looking like it might flip with the increasing polarization and the decreasing of ticket-splitting, it might be cause for concern.
Rosen’s likely challenger will be Army veteran and candidate for Senate in 2022 in Sam Brown. So far it is looking like a close race, but Rosen has a slight edge. But after electing a Republican Governor in 2022, can that work over to Senate, and will the Presidential race affect it?
CJ’s Projection: Tilt D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Lean D (Hold)
New Jersey: (Incumbent: Bob Menendez-D)
New Jersey’s Senate race is unlikely to be competitive unless incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez is renominated. Menendez is facing several charges regarding corruption and bribery and as a result, US Representative Andy Kim and New Jersey’s First Lady Tammy Murphy have challenged him. Menendez trails them both in a distant third and he’s unlikely to be renominated.
The Republicans don't have anyone really notable other than Christine Serrano Glassner, the Mayor of Mendham Borough, and Curtis Bradshaw, a real estate developer and former Executive Director of the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority. This race should be relatively stress-free for the Democrats, but if Menendez is somehow renominated, it will be tight.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
New York: (Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand-D)
Kirsten Gillibrand has served in the US Senate since 2009 and looks to be a safe bet to win reelection. Gillibrand has voted with Biden more than 90% of the time and has a strong fundraising game. On the Republican side of things, Josh Eisen is currently the only declared candidate and has been endorsed by former Governor George Pataki.
In 2018, Gillibrand won with 67% of the vote in a year that was especially favorable for Democrats. She may not win by that margin this time, as Republicans may tie her to Biden. Biden’s unpopularity in the Empire State could make things at the Presidential level closer, but Gillibrand’s seat is not vulnerable.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
New Mexico: (Incumbent: Martin Heinrich-D)
Martin Heinrich is seeking his third term to represent New Mexico in the Senate and after winning reelection in 2018 thanks to a 3rd party challenger siphoning votes, he looks to have a mostly clear path to reelection
The Republican bench of challengers isn't that deep, as they can only muster former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manuel Gonzalez III and Daughter of longtime Senator Pete Domenici, Nella Domenici. Overall, it should be smooth sailing for Heinrich, who has the added bonus of this being a presidential year and New Mexico being unlikely to flip.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Likely D (Hold)
Ohio: (Incumbent: Sherrod Brown-D)
Like Florida and Iowa, Ohio has experienced a massive shift from a swing state to a Republican state over the past decade. However, Sherrod Brown remains in the Senate and was able to win in 2018 when the Buckeye State was becoming more Republican. The Republicans have strong challengers to unseat the incumbent Brown. State Senator Matt Dolan, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and Bernie Moreno all have strong endorsements, with Moreno having the endorsement of Donald Trump.
Either way, Ohio is a red state, and Brown is not exactly a moderate. Brown won reelection in 2018 against a weaker candidate in a Democratic favorable year, arguably because of fundraising. The Republicans can win this seat, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket.
CJ’s Projection: Tilt R (Flip)
Dylan’s Projection: Lean R (Flip)
Pennsylvania: (Incumbent: Bob Casey Jr.-D)
Pennsylvania will be one of the most competitive states in the Presidential cycle and has the potential for a competitive senate race as well. Bob Casey Jr. has served in the Senate since 2007 and won his previous race by nine points in 2018. As for his opposition, Republican David McCormick appears to be the favorite for the Republicans and already has the support of Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell.
This race could be competitive, but Casey Jr. should win his reelection by a likely margin. Casey Jr. has both excellent name recognition, polling, and the money for another six years in Washington. Although he should not take things for granted, Casey Jr. will likely outperform President Biden in a state that could determine the Presidency.
CJ’s Projection: Likely D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Likely D (Hold)
Rhode Island: (Incumbent: Sheldon Whitehouse-D)
Sheldon Whitehouse is aiming for his fourth term in the Senate, and he is a safe bet to do so. Whitehouse won with over 60% of the vote in 2018 and will likely win by a similar margin in 2024. His chances increase given the weaker presence of the Republican Party in Rhode Island, and the state's status as a heavily liberal one.
Former President of the Rhode Island Republican Assembly Raymond McKay and State Representative Patricia Morgan are vying for the Republican nomination. Both candidates have name recognition in their party, but either way, Whitehouse is going to win big again.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Tennessee: (Incumbent: Marsha Blackburn-R)
Marsha Blackburn has a reputation for being one of the most conservative members of the Senate, especially on social issues. Blackburn won her seat in 2018 by 11 points, and she is all but assured another six years in Washington.
Tennessee is a deeply Republican state and there don’t appear to be many strong challengers to Blackburn's reelection bid. Gloria Johnson, a state representative and member of the Tennessee Three is a notable bid on the Democratic side. However, Blackburn has the money, and name recognition, and is a conservative in a deeply Republican state and will win easily.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe R (Hold)
Texas: (Incumbent: Ted Cruz-R)
Ted Cruz narrowly won reelection in the reliably red Texas and many Democrats believe that he is vulnerable. U.S. Representative Collin Allred and State Senator Roland Gutierrez are the two most likely Democrats to challenge Cruz with Allred having many Super PACs and big money groups donating to his campaign to unseat Cruz, raising over $18 million. Cruz however has raised a staggering $44 million and looks to be in a better position now than in 2018.
Cruz leads both Allred and Gutierrez in early polling and while some Democrats may get their hopes up about flipping this seat, it is worth noting that Texas isn’t a threat to flip blue in 2024 and Donald Trump’s presence could bolster GOP votes down the ballot. By all accounts, Ted Cruz should win a third term.
CJ’s Projection: Likely R (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Likely R (Hold)
Vermont: (Incumbent: Bernie Sanders-I)
Despite being from one of the smallest states in the country, Bernie Sanders is one of the most well-known senators in the United States. An Independent, Sanders is known for his sympathies for socialism, support for universal healthcare, and the Green New Deal. While he is an independent, he caucuses with the Democrats and has consistently won his elections in landslides.
Gerald Malloy has announced his candidacy for the Republicans and Jon Svitavsky has done so for the Democrats. There is speculation that Sanders may not run again, but until that is announced, Sanders is going to win big.
(Fun Fact: No Democrat has ever won Vermont’s Class I Senate Seat)
CJ’s Projection: Safe I (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe I (Hold)
Virginia: (Incumbent: Tim Kaine-D)
Tim Kaine is likely to hold his seat, but he may have to work harder than expected to win another term in the Senate. There are several strong Republicans in Virginia, and arguably the strongest name is Scott Parkinson, who has the support of several senators and congressmen. Hung Cao is another good name who nearly flipped a D+6 district in the 2022 midterms.
While the Republicans have good candidates, Kaine’s name recognition and blue-state status of Virginia should put him over the edge. The Northern Virginia suburbs (where 40% of the state's population is) are far too blue for the Republicans to flip the seat. Kaine should win by a sizable margin unless Republicans have a very good night.
CJ’s Projection: Safe D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Likely D (Hold)
West Virginia: (Incumbent: Joe Manchin-D)
West Virginia has become one of the reddest states in the country over the past twenty years, and that trend does not appear to be slowing. Republican Governor Jim Justice announced he will be running for the open senate and looks to be nearly a lock to win the primary. Alex Mooney of West Virginia’s second U.S. Congressional District is running and has some notable endorsements but not like Justice’s.
This race could have been competitive had incumbent Senator Joe Manchin not decided to retire. Manchin has earned a reputation as a Conservative Democrat and has won close races when other Democrats lost in landslides.
CJ’s Projection: Safe R (Flip)
Dylan’s Projection: Safe R (Flip)
Wisconsin: (Incumbent: Tammy Baldwin-D)
Wisconsin is another state that could vote one way in the Presidential election, and another in the Senate. Incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin has served in the Senate since 2013 and won her last election by double digits. While her race could be competitive, Baldwin’s chances of reelection are good given the weaker Republican bench.
Trempealeau County Supervisor Stacey Klein currently has a fundraising advantage over the three declared Republican candidates. Unfortunately for the Republicans, candidates who could have posed a serious challenge to Baldwin like David Clarke and Mike Gallagher have either not declared or have declined to run at all. This race could be a flip, but given Baldwin's fundraising advantage and name recognition, Wisconsin’s Class I race will stay blue.
CJ’s Projection: Likely D (Hold)
Dylan’s Projection: Lean D (Hold)
Have an opposing viewpoint to this opinion? Let us know. All views are welcome. Send your thoughts to our Editorial Staff – Editor Dylan Hicks dhicks@student.dean.edu or Dean Daily Faculty Advisor, Professor John Rooke jrooke@dean.edu