The United States Senate is deadlocked, with Democrats and Republicans each having 50 senators out of 100 (the Democrats technically have 48 senators, but, resulting in ties on bills of everyone voted party line). With the Senate in such a precarious position, all eyes have turned to the midterms happening this November where one side will almost certainly gain an advantage. Can the Democrats defeat the odds and secure the Senate, or will the Republicans gain control and halt President Biden’s agenda? There are numerous interesting races, unsafe incumbents, and some familiar faces retiring. We can’t get to all of them, but let’s take a look at some of the biggest and most interesting races in the 2022 Senate midterms.
(All photos from Senate.gov)
Alabama:
Six-term Republican Richard Shelby has announced that he will not seek a seventh term, opening a seat in the deep red state of Alabama. Front runner Democrat, Will Boyd, is looking to flip his seat, but he will face some stiff competition. As for the Republicans, there is a three-way race underway. Richard Shelby endorsed his chief of staff, Katie Britt, and former President Donald Trump endorsed US Representative, Mo Brooks. However, Donald Trump rescinded his endorsement of Brooks, tanking Brooks’ polls and allowing a third candidate, former Army pilot Mike Durant. Durant has taken a lead over Britt and Brooks, and it’s looking incredibly likely that he will carry the Republican nomination. If Durant wins, he’ll likely win the seat, due to how right-leaning Alabama is.
Alaska:
Incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski should be the favorite in a red state like Alaska, but there is a very real chance that Murkowski may be primaried by Trump-endorsed challenger, Kelly Tshibaka. While Murkowski has led in the polls in the beginning of the race, Tshibaka has taken the lead in some of the more recent polls, and Murkowski faces the dangerous reality of being primaried. As for Democrat challengers, nobody really seems to stick out, and it looks incredibly likely that this seat will stay red. But will it be Murkowski?
Arizona:
After winning a special election in 2020, Democrat Mark Kelly will run for his first full term. Despite being well-liked and having the incumbent status to his advantage, this race looks to be a tossup. Two of the biggest Republican challengers include Jim Lamon, the Chair of Depcom (a solar power company) and Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General of Arizona. Despite being carried by President Biden in 2020, Arizona is not completely a blue state, and the Republicans aren’t going away without a fight. Kelly just might lose this if he doesn’t play his cards right.
California:
After Senator Kamala Harris became Vice President, Governor Gavin Newsom appointed Alex Padilla to replace her. Now in 2022, Padilla will run for his first full term. Given how blue California is, Padilla is sure to be re-elected, even though many Republicans have filed to run as well.
Florida:
Republican Marco Rubio will be seeking his third term, and at this point in time, he will likely face Democrat US Representative, Val Demings. Early polls showed a small margin separating them, but Rubio has since widened the gap and currently holds a comfortable lead over Demings. As Florida leans further to the right, it looks like Rubio will retain his seat.
Georgia:
Incumbent Raphael Warnock was elected after a special election in 2020 to fill the remaining years of former Senator Johnny Isakson’s term. Now he runs for his first full term, but he will have a challenger, former NFL star running back running as a Republican, Herschel Walker. Warnock appears vulnerable as his poll leads seem to have evaporated, and Walker is starting to pull ahead, especially since Walker received endorsements from many prominent Republicans such as Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott. The race can certainly go either way, but Warnock must act fast if he wants to be re-elected.
Iowa:
This race has taken an interesting turn, as longtime Republican Chuck Grassley has announced he’s running again at age 88, and he shows no signs of slowing down. However, the Democrats seem to have found their best chance in former US Representative Abby Finkenauer, but after almost not qualifying for the primaries she’s in. While she may be the best shot to unseat Grassley, current polls show her losing handily against the popular incumbent.
Kentucky:
Another prominent Republican in the Senate will run for reelection, Rand Paul. Paul is a controversial figure for many, being outspoken on issues like Covid-19 mandates, but appears to be in good shape in the polls. Democrat Charles Booker is racing to unseat Paul, but due to his overtly progressive stances and endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, he isn’t looked upon too favorably by a very red Kentucky.
Missouri:
Incumbent Roy Blunt has announced he will not seek a third term, and the Democrats are racing to flip his seat and the Republicans race to retain it. Many Democrats are running, but as it sits now, retired Marine Corps officer Lucas Kunce leads the rest of the pack. As for the Republicans, it has boiled down to a three-way race between former Governor Eric Greitens, US Representative Vicky Hartzler, and Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Greitens led when polling first started, but Hartzler and Schmitt caught up and though it will be a tight race, Eric Schmitt holds the lead at this time. Many believe that the open seat will stay red, but Schmitt, Hartzler, or Greitens have to make it out of the primaries first.
Nevada:
Democrat incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto was elected for the first time in 2016 but only received a little over 47% of the vote and her opponent, Joe Heck, received about 44%. This time, however, she’ll face quite the challenge from the Republican primary frontrunner Adam Laxalt. Nevada is a blue state but only leans blue, and Cortez Masto has been engaged in a tight race with the Trump-backed Laxalt. No candidate has a discernable advantage, and this race may remain a tossup for the foreseeable future.
New Hampshire:
First elected in 2016, incumbent Democrat Massie Hassan is looking to win a second term, yet despite the advantage of being the incumbent, her victory is far from guaranteed. She currently holds a lead over her challengers Donald Bolduc and Chuck Morse, but the race may get tighter when the Republicans choose their nominee. She is favored to win as of now, but nothing is certain in this race.
New York:
Democrat Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was elected with just over 70% of the vote in 2016 and is looking to be elected to a fifth term, and given how popular he is in the blue state of New York, he will almost certainly be re-elected. His likely challenger from the Republicans will be Joe Pinion, a TV host for Newsmax. Given his standing in the Senate, Schumer is a safe bet for reelection.
North Carolina:
Three-term Republican Richard Burr will retire after his current term, and in a battleground state like North Carolina, obtaining this seat is crucial. The Democrats have a strong pick, the Democrat primary frontrunner, Cheri Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court. The Republicans have 2 big candidates, former Governor Pat McCrory and US Representative, Ted Budd. McCrory started out with a strong lead after being endorsed by the retiring Richard Burr, but Ted Budd surged forward and caught up with him. Then when Budd received an endorsement from Donald Trump, he took a sizeable lead in the polling. The stage may be set for a Beasley versus Budd election and as it sits now, in a hypothetical race, Ted Budd holds a decent lead over Cheri Beasley.
Ohio:
Republican incumbent Rob Portman will not seek another term, leaving another seat open. The Democrat frontrunner is US Representative Tim Ryan, who has a large lead in primary polling after he received endorsements from current Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and 2016 Presidential Nominee, Hillary Clinton. As for the Republicans, there is a five-way race, investment banker Mike Gibbons, Iraq War veteran, and former State Treasurer Josh Mandel, Author and Veteran JD Vance, former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken, and state Senator Matt Dolan. Despite this, Gibbons, Mandel, and Vance have the best odds to win the primary. There is simply no telling which Republican will make it out of the race to likely face Tim Ryan.
Oklahoma:
After winning a special election in 2014, Republican James Lankford won his first full term in 2016. Now he looks to serve a second full term. Lankford appears to be in good shape and holds a tremendous lead over Republican challenger Jackson Lahmeyer. The Democrats do not appear to have any significant challengers to oppose Lankford, who looks primed to win another term.
Oklahoma (Special):
In an interesting twist, the other senate seat in Oklahoma is also up for grabs, as incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe is deciding to retire with 4 years left on his fifth term. The Democrats are going all in to flip Inhofe’s seat, nominating former US Representative Kendra Horn from Oklahoma City. The Republicans have a few options for candidates, but as it stands now, the leader of the pack is US Representative Markwayne Mullin. As of now, the seat is considered safe to stay Republican.
Pennsylvania:
A Senate seat is opening in the swing state of Pennsylvania, as Republican incumbent Pat Toomey will retire after his term. Looking to control both Senate seats, the Democrats have a strong contender for Toomey’s seat, current Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who is dominating the Democrat primaries. The Republican primaries are less clear, seeming to be between political commentator Kathy Barnette, former US Ambassador to Demark Carla Sands, and former US Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs David McCormick. As McCormick started to stand out, a new challenger appeared for the Republicans, Dr. Mehmet Oz, a surgeon and TV host. Dr. Oz has been battling with McCormick for the lead and will receive a boost by being nominated by former President Donald Trump. With Fetterman looking like he’ll carry the Democratic primary, the question must be asked, who will the Republicans nominate?
Utah:
Utah is a solid red state and their Republican officials are usually a shoe-in for reelection and the same can be said for incumbent Mike Lee in this race, but there is an interesting independent challenger, Evan McMullin. McMullin is a former CIA officer who ran for President in 2016 on Utah’s state ballot and still enjoys a moderate amount of popularity in Utah today. While McMullin trails Lee in the polls, he still leads the presumptive Democrat nominee Kael Weston in recent polling.
Vermont:
Vermont is losing a familiar face, Democrat Incumbent Patrick Leahy, who has served eight terms in the Senate, has announced that he will retire at the end of his term. The Democrats seem to have a successor, US Representative for Vermont’s at large congressional district Peter Welch. Vermont is a blue state, but the Republicans are ready to try and flip Leahy’s seat and they seem to be favoring attorney Christina Nolan, who has been endorsed by Vermont’s popular Republican Governor Phil Scott. Leahy’s seat should stay blue, and it would take some major campaigning from Nolan to flip it.
Wisconsin:
In another tossup race, Republican Ron Johnson is facing an uncertain future, breaking his pledge to only serve two terms by running a third time, and his approval rating has slipped in recent months. There is a slew of Democrats that want to challenge him, most notably Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, and the Senior Vice President of the Milwaukee Bucks basketball team Alex Lasry. Right now, Johnson holds slim leads over all of them in hypothetical polling,
These are some of the more intriguing races that will take place this November. Remember, this does not serve as a prediction, just how these races are shaping up so far. What will change? Could a popular incumbent be upset? We’ll have to wait until November. Until then we can only speculate.
Have an opposing viewpoint to this opinion? Let us know. All views are welcomed. Send your thoughts to our Editorial Staff – Editor Katherine Montgomery kmontgomery2@student.dean.edu or Dean Daily Faculty Advisor, Professor John Rooke jrooke@dean.edu
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