On November 22nd, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, Texas, shocking the nation just three years after the Massachusetts native was elected. With the assassination of Kennedy, then-Vice-President Lyndon Johnson was sworn in as President of the United States one year before the 1964 Presidential Election. Johnson planned to fulfill Kennedy’s campaign promises of defeating communism and pushing for civil rights in the nation while a member of the divided Democratic party.
Like the Democrats, the Republicans experienced division between their conservative and liberal wings. In the 1964 Republican primaries, Barry Goldwater, a senator from Arizona, represented the conservative side of militant anti-communism, while New York’s Governor Nelson Rockefeller represented the socially moderate, liberal wing of the party. Goldwater won the nomination after a tough contest in the primaries after Rockefeller alienated many women with the divorce from his wife.
Although Goldwater was able to win over the Republicans, he was defeated in a blowout in the 1964 Presidential Election by incumbent Lyndon Johnson. Johnson used the signing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to his advantage, which Goldwater did not vote in favor of, immensely helping Johnson in his presidential bid. Goldwater voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act because he felt some of its provisions could allow for a federal overreach, while Rockefeller was an enthusiastic supporter of the Civil Rights Movement.
The modern-day Republican party takes after many of Goldwater's platforms of militant anti-communism and socially conservative beliefs. If Rockefeller defeated Goldwater in the 1964 primaries, the Republican party and American politics would likely look very different than they do today. So, if Rockefeller won the Republican nomination in 1964 and nearly or even defeated Lyndon Johnson in the election, what would the Republican party look like today?
If Rockefeller defeated Johnson in 1964, the US would likely not have escalated the Vietnam War as it did under Johnson. Rockefeller spoke out against the Vietnam War, and although it would be unpopular against many conservatives, not much would have changed. South Vietnam's fight against communism would have fallen as it did in 1975, and it would still be a communist state like it is today.
If Rockefeller is an effective leader, then his moderate views would resonate with many Republicans in the future. Even if Rockefeller lost in 1964, his loss could not have been worse than Goldwater’s which would motivate him to run again in 1968 as he did in real life. However, even if Rockefeller wins the White House and turns the Republicans liberal, the conservative wing likely still takes over the party with their ultimate candidate: Ronald Reagan.
Although Barry Goldwater was defeated in a blowout loss to Lyndon Johnson in 1964, many Republicans point to Goldwater as the reason for the party's embrace of social conservatism, which led to the Reagan presidency. Ronald Reagan is considered one of the most popular presidents in American history for his leadership during the Cold War and for leading a strong economy and was a large part of the conservative wing of the Republican party. Reagan won the White House with his charisma and policies as a staunch conservative, which helped him trounce the incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Today, the Republican Party also sees a divide not necessarily in its ideology but in its candidates. The Trump-Republicans are doing everything in their power to push for the policies of former president Donald Trump, who recently announced his intentions to run for a nonconsecutive term as president. On the other hand, many Republicans want a fresh face, and many point to current Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who will be a favorite for the White House if he runs.
Although much of the public may not remember him, Nelson Rockefeller's political legacy lives on. Rockefeller's willingness to stand up for his beliefs and not give in to the more dominant ideology is seen in many moderate Republicans today. Today's Rockefeller Republicans are all over the country, especially in the dominant north with Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, and Vermont Governor Phil Scott.