Primary season is quickly approaching to determine who the Democrats and Republicans will nominate to run for President. However, each party’s frontrunner, incumbent President Joe Biden for the Democrats, and former President Donald Trump for the Republicans, don’t seem too keen on debating their challengers. One question now comes to everyone’s mind, “Should Biden and Trump participate in the debates?” Both candidates are in different situations and have different reasons whether or not to debate, so here is a breakdown of each of their situations, and whether or not they will actually participate in a debate.
Joe Biden: It is worth noting that the incumbent President does not usually have a (strong) challenger for the nomination within their own party, and even still, they do not debate their primary challenger should there be one. In fact, the last time an incumbent Democrat President faced a serious primary challenge was Jimmy Carter in 1980, who was challenged by Ted Kennedy, but Carter still won with 50.1% of the vote to Kennedy’s 37.6%. On top of that, the last time an incumbent President did debate a challenger was Republican Gerald Ford debating Ronald Reagan in 1976.
2024 may be a different story, as Joe Biden continuously polls below 70%, which is alarming for an incumbent. For reference, Donald Trump won his reelection primary with 93.9% of the vote, and Barack Obama won his reelection primary with 88.9%, so with Biden not even attaining 70% consistently, it could be seen as problematic. While the incumbent may not debate any challengers, a poll from USA Today shows that 72% of Biden supporters want him to debate his challengers, Marianne Williamson, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The DNC stands behind Biden, and they have announced that they will plan no debates, a decision which Kennedy Jr. and Williamson have criticized. When it’s all said and done, Joe Biden will not debate unless something catastrophic happens and even if he has to debate, he will almost certainly win the Democratic nomination.
Donald Trump: Former President Trump is a different story. After losing reelection in 2020, Trump is back for another shot and faces several opponents. The RNC has scheduled a debate on August 23rd of this year, but Trump has signaled that he may not attend. Like Biden, Trump is the clear frontrunner in the polls, but unlike Biden, his party will have debates. and it would be his own decision not to participate, rather than the party not having one.
This debate has four requirements: A candidate must be registered with the Federal Election Commission/be constitutionally eligible; sign a pledge to support the eventual nominee by August 21st; poll above 1% since July in 3 more national polls; and receive over 40,000 campaign donations from over twenty states. Trump (who meets the requirements) said he would “possibly not” participate in the first debate and may hold a rival event. He has also raised a concern that Fox News will host the debate which he labeled a “hostile network”, per Reuters.
Other than Trump, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott are the ones who have met the criteria thus far, with Mike Pence and Chris Christie not far behind and likely meeting the criteria before the debate. Republicans are urging Trump to debate, but Trump has yet to commit. There will be another debate, rumored to be in September of 2023, and there is a belief that Trump will attend that one if he does not attend the first. As of right now, it is up in the air, but despite his comments, many people expect him to debate in August.
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